Guizhou Moutai (600519): The plan landed more than expected and expects peak season performance

Guizhou Moutai (600519): The plan landed more than expected and expects peak season performance
Matters: The company’s announcement was approved by the fifth meeting of the second session of the board of directors of the company in 2019. The company sells Moutai Group to Moutai Group’s holding subsidiaries and branches including Guizhou Moutai Group Marketing Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as the marketing company).Series of wine.In 2019, the transaction amount did not exceed 5% (US $ 5.6 billion) of the company’s net 成都桑拿网 asset value at the end of 2018.  Guoxin’s point of view: We believe that the Maotai Group’s plan has exceeded expectations to dispel doubts, the market maintains a tight balance between supply and demand, and the approval price is firm and limited. The company can adjust the product and channel structure to achieve average price increases and higher performance elasticity, increasing 2019-2021 The annual EPS is 34.94/41.07/46.94 yuan, corresponding to 28/23/21 times PE, one-year target assessment of 1150-1232 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.  Opinion: The implementation of the marketing company’s plan exceeded expectations. The company dismissed market concerns. The company casually stated that shareholders abide by its commitments when listing in the company. The sales price of related party transactions is the same as the 南宁桑拿 purchase price or the same pricing principle of other non-affiliated dealers.Thousands of thousands of calculations correspond to flying sales.The company also pointed out that in order to improve the consumer experience and control the terminal market, the management rights of Moutai liquor that was revoked due to violations will be re-planned to be shipped to self-operated, group purchase and other channels. The remaining part of the 6,000-ton quota is expected to be restored in the early stage.Channel, recently completed the sales of the Super League tender, reviewing the direct sales channel revenue of H1 201916.0 billion with a decrease of 38%, accounting for only 4%.1% down 3.6 pieces, Q2 direct sales channel is only 2.9%, it is expected that the proportion will be improved as the plan goes underground for half a year, strengthening the company’s performance.After three months, the group marketing company’s plan finally came to fruition. It is in line with the major shareholders proposed in the company’s shareholder meeting in the early stage and will not compete with small and medium shareholders. The final plan is law-abiding, meets anti-corruption requirements, and protects shareholders’ rights.of.  The volume is expected to accelerate and the approval price is still strong. Looking forward to the peak season performance review. In the first half of the year, the company adjusted its performance during the channel adjustment period. The pace of payment and delivery confirmation has slowed down, and the actual investment has increased.The quota was implemented in advance in August, and the amount of Moutai to be released in the second half of the year was about 1.8 Initially, the company ‘s recent Mid-Autumn National Day peak volume of 7,400 tons was proposed by the company ‘s recent market work conference. It is expected that the recent volume will accelerate. Considering the strong market demand, it is expected to maintain a tight supply situation.Sales performance.  Earnings forecast rating We believe that the Moutai Group’s plan has exceeded expectations to dispel doubts, the market maintains a tight balance between supply and demand, and the approval price has changed steadily. The company can adjust the product and channel structure to achieve average price increase and higher performance elasticity, increasing 2019-2021 The annual EPS is 34.94/41.07/46.94 yuan, corresponding to 28/23/21 times PE, one-year target assessment of 1150-1232 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.