Shenwan Automobile: Analysis of Three Schemes Under the Expectation of the Warranty of Automobile Market Policies
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Yesterday, Wang Bin, deputy director of the Department of Market Operations of the Ministry of Commerce, introduced that the Ministry of Commerce will thoroughly implement the important decision-making arrangements with the central government on “actively and stably consume traditional bulk consumption such as automobiles”, encourage various changes in accordance with forms, and introduce measures to suit local conditions to promote relevant promotion.Car consumption.
Just today, Chen Shihua, the secretary general of the China Automobile Industry Association, also said that the association has submitted to the relevant departments a part of the national implementation of national six emission standards recommendations.
There is no doubt that at the national level, the impact on the overall consumption of the epidemic is extremely prominent, and this year’s automobile consumption may become the main pulling point in the overall consumer market in the future.
The analysis team of Shenwan Automobile said that the current state may introduce the following policies to promote auto consumption this year: the easing of restrictions on purchase restrictions on provinces and cities, the introduction of a policy of halving the purchase tax, the upgrade of the sixth country purchase and the exemption of car purchase tax credits.
Restriction on the provinces and cities with restrictions on purchases Regarding the relaxation of the provinces and cities with restrictions on purchases of cars, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Federation of Vehicle Industry Associations, also said that the promulgation of this policy is the most probable.
Shen Wan Automobile analyst said that assuming that the provinces and cities with purchase restrictions have increased by 150%, 100%, 50%, and 30% respectively, the sales of passenger cars nationwide have been reduced by 5%, 3%, 2%, 苏州桑拿网 1% growth.
It is assumed that each purchase-restricting province and city has completely liberalized the purchase restriction, and the potential demand is converted into actual sales at different paces over 4 years.
If the potential demand follows 4: 3: 2: 1, it will be quickly converted into sales in 4 years, and the expected increase in car sales will be 13%, 10%, 7%, and 3%; if the potential demand is converted into sales in 4 years on averageIt is expected that the annual sales growth of automobiles will bring 8%.
The effect of half the purchase tax for aircraft below 100,000 or the best data shows that the car purchase tax reduction and exemption policy has been introduced twice, which were introduced in December 2008 and October 2015. 1.
The policy of halving the purchase tax of passenger cars with displacements 四川耍耍网 of 6L and below was halved, and the two policies were once again refunded in 2010 and 2017, and the reduction was completely ended.
Shen Wan Automotive analysts said that if this time the introduction of the pair.
The policy of halving the purchase tax for passenger cars of 6L and below has been estimated to reduce free use by approximately 485 on the basis of 14.43 million annual sales.
6 trillion, so that financial burden pressure will bite.
The data shows that the previous radial car market was mainly due to the rapid change in consumer demand for low-priced cars. The proportion of sales of models below 100,000 in terms of terminal sales continued to decline from 40% in 2014 to 22% in 2019.
Shen Wan Auto analyst pointed out that low-priced car consumers are more price-sensitive. If the introduction of a policy of halving the purchase tax for low-priced cars may effectively stimulate demand, according to sales of less than 100,000 yuan in 2019 (about 4.5 million) Measured by halving the purchase tax, the corresponding deduction is about 17.8 billion. From the financial burden and the final effect, it may be the current reasonable stimulus.
National Six upgrade promotes renewal. In July last year, many cities including Guangzhou and Shenzhen began to implement National Six standards for light vehicles. In the future, models that are gradually listed will also fully implement National Six emission standards.The obsolescence requirements of the following models are bound to rise further.
According to the data of the China Automobile Association, in 2018, there were 2 car ownership nationwide.
Of the 2.6 billion, the sales volume from National 1 to National 3 accounted for 2 respectively.
1%, accounting for 26.
Shen Wan Auto analyst said that assuming that the three categories of vehicles are 100%, 50% and 20%, respectively, it will bring more than 20 million new demand for the market.
At the same time, passenger car updates and redemptions are the core driving force for the growth of the domestic auto market. The analyst pointed out that if simple replacements are made according to car replacement 5-7, passenger cars purchased in 2013-2015 will enter the update redemption cycle in 2020.In the past three years, the sales of passenger cars were 17.6 million, 19.42 million and 20.88 million, respectively. Based on the 80% renewal exchange rate, it is expected to bring more than 30 million new markets.
On January 31st of this year, Foshan introduced a new policy to promote car consumption with a purchase price of 3,000 yuan and a new purchase of 2,000 yuan. Business analysts said that the new car consumption policy of Foshan is of great significance, and the goal this year is also very veryIt is clear that the hope is to resist the downward pressure of consumer markets such as grain, oil, food, and clothing through automobile consumption. In the future, the country will definitely introduce related policies to promote automobile consumption. Perhaps this year’s automobile market will have a big surprise.
(Sina Finance Luoyang)