Depth-Company-Ping An of China (601318): Younger executives adjust NBV growth slightly lower than expected

Depth * Company * Ping An of China (601318): Younger executives adjust NBV growth slightly lower than expected

The company achieved operating profit of 1,040 in the first three quarters of 2019.

600 million, +21 per year.

5%; net profit attributable to mother, 1,295.

7 trillion, +63 a year.

2%; new business value of life and health insurance is 588.

1 ‰, ten years +4.


  Restructuring of senior management and clearing of duties of the three co-CEOs: The company’s senior management has been adjusted and Xie Yonglin has become the group general manager. At the same time, he continues to serve as the three co-CEOs.The chairman of the group has not changed.

The direction of this release is more youthful, professional, and international, improving the efficiency of strategic decision-making and execution efficiency. The Group’s comprehensive financial model has brought continuous growth in the scale of customers.

  The growth of NBV was lower than expected, and the expansion of NBV targets was reduced: 1) Life and health insurance achieved NBV177 in 2019Q3.

5 ‰, +4 for ten years.

1%; NBV 588 was achieved in the first three quarters.

1 ‰, ten years +4.

5%; NBV growth was lower than expected, exceeding the NBV target and lowered to about 5%.苏州夜网论坛

New business value rate 48.

1%, ten years +5.

3 units.

The company continues to strengthen its product layout advantages and reduce the sales of short-storage products with low NBV profits. In the third quarter, it launched “100% peace of mind” and “big and small stars” protection products, increasing product subdivision and increasing the value of new business;The number of agents in the first three quarters of 2019 was 124.

50,000, a year -12.

1%; In the third quarter of 2019, the number of agents was reduced by 4.

10,000 people (19H was 124.

50,000 people).

Number of new insurance policies per agent in the first three quarters1.

39 cases / month, +9 per year.


  P & C operating profit benefited from the increase in total investment income + expense reduction year by year: 1) In the first three 北京桑拿 quarters of 2019, P & C Insurance achieved operating profit of 142.

5 ‰, +75 for ten years.

5%; the impact of reduced fees and charges due to the decline in regulated fees and the consolidation of the capital market to boost total investment income and increase P & C insurance operating profit; 2) P & C premium income in the first three quarters of 2019 was 1,968.

8 ‰, +8 for ten years.

7%; comprehensive cost rate of 96.

2%, ten years +0.

2 units; 3) Non-auto insurance (including non-motor vehicle insurance and accident and health insurance) contributed premium income 581 in the first three quarters of 2019.

9 trillion, ten years +14.


  The long-term bond assets were allocated in a timely manner, and the investment yield performed well: 1) The company’s total / net investment yield was 6.

0% / 4.

9%, an increase of 2 per year.

0/0.2 assets, the company implemented adjustment of asset allocation portfolio, additional long-term low-risk bonds such as treasury bonds, to further reduce the asset duration gap; 2) insurance funds investment assets continue to expand, the first three quarters of 2019 reached 3.

0 trillion yuan, +8 from the beginning of the year.


  Investment suggestion The company is in an adjustment period in terms of agents, product structure, value rate and other aspects in 2019. The growth of NBV is still to be adjusted in time.

In 2020, it will still be a starter to dilute, maintain the original average and balanced sales rhythm, ensure that the quarterly NBV contribution is more stable, and NBV performance will help improve.

We revise down the company’s profit forecast and expect the NBV growth rate to be 5 in 19/20/21.

1% / 8.

2% / 14.

4% (Originally predicted growth rates were 8 respectively.

4% / 12.

4% / 13.

6%), the EV growth rate was 22.

2% / 19.

4% / 19.


The company’s 2019P / EV is 1.

3x, maintain BUY rating.

  Risk reminders: The growth rate of insurance premiums for protection-type insurance products has fallen short of expectations; the dual impact of market fluctuations on industry performance and estimates; and the uncertainty of insurance company investment caused by downward interest rates.